CALIFORNIA DREAMIN' – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  Well, the effort is there, but recent polls in California are trending away from a Republican victory in either the gubernatorial or senatorial races. 

California is one of the bluest of the blue states, so this is not entirely surprising.  And there is still more than a month to go before the election, so fight on we will.  But California Democrats, apparently determined to make matters worse in the once-golden state, are coming home to Barbara Boxer.  I mean, who would want to come home to Barbara Boxer?   From Politics Daily:

Three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided, according to a Field poll conducted Sept. 14-21. The margin of error is 4.1 points.

Boxer's margin over Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, has been creeping up ever so slightly compared to previous Field polls. In March, she led 45 percent to 44 percent; in July, her lead was 47 percent to 44 percent.

In surveys by other pollsters that we have reported, Public Policy Polling had Boxer ahead by 50 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted Sept. 14-16; Boxer led 46 percent to 44 percent in a poll conducted Sept. 11 by Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research; Fiorina led Boxer 48 percent to 47 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 6; and Boxer ran ahead of Fiorina 48 percent to 44 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 2-7.

The other bad news is that former governor Jerry Brown is pulling ahead of Republican challenger Meg Whitman.

One reason for our reversal of fortune in California is that President Obama, in contrast to national trends, remains solidly popular in the state.  Midterms are often a referendum on the national administration.  If that's the case in California, we're running uphill.

Miracles are still possible.  Neither Boxer nor Brown are in landslide territory.  Battle on.  But the facts thus far are not all that encouraging.

September 26, 2010